Predicting birds is even harder than predicting the weather. In fact, first we predict the weather, and then we have to predict what the birds will do based on the weather. This is not very statistically dependable process. Sometimes we get it right, sometimes we don’t. Yesterday, our plans – based on these predictions – worked out perfectly!

Jeannette and I began the day birding the Portland Peninsula; the area along West Commercial Street, the Western Promenade, and the area along the Commercial Street Extension. Not suprisingly, given the conditions the past few days, there wasn’t a whole lot to see – although, admittedly, I was expecting a bit more – but there was a number of Savannah Sparrows, a handful of White-throated Sparrows, and few other migrants.

Later, we picked up a couple of the Full Belly Deli’s great sandwiches, and headed for Bradbury Mountain. The forecast was for southwesterly winds to develop ahead of an approaching strong cold front. A warm, sunny start to the day would allow thermals to generate, and get hawks moving. Afternoon clouds would provide a backdrop to spot high-soaring birds against. Really, a perfect hawkwatching scenario - and, on a Tuesday, our day off! Too good to be true?

We didn’t make it up to the mountain until 1:15, quite a bit later than we had planned. Lionel informed us that he only had 23 hawks since 9:00am, and most of those had come within the last half hour. So much for my prediction . . . .But wait!

As the southwesterly, and then westerly, winds picked up, and the clouds moved in – and the front approached – a classic “pre-frontal flight” developed, with lots of birds on the move. In fact, between 1:15 and 4:30, 278 hawks were tallied, including 184 Broad-winged Hawks and 21 Ospreys. What a flight! (We’ve been waiting all month for good hawkwatching conditions on a Tuesday!)

Jeannette and I hesitantly left at 4:30, having to hussle down the hill to attend the Merrymeeting Audubon Annual Meeting – and to hear guest speaker Philip Hoose (who gave a great presentation, by the way). We were a little concerned about the late day falcon flight that sometimes develops, especially just ahead of a front. Luckily for us, that late-day falcon flight consisted of only one American Kestrel!