I have been thwarted in my previous two attempts to explore the new trail (which circumnavigates the lake) at Florida Lake Park in Freeport due to high water, but today’s attempt was a success. A nice new trail, with 4x6 plank bridges over some of the wettest areas, makes for a very pleasant stroll through some great woodland and riparian habitat.

It passes through some nice mixed woods, with some patches dominated by Yellow and White Birch, and other patches dominated by Eastern Hemlock and Balsam Fir. In other words, it looks great for finches! And, just as I thought that this, a White-winged Crossbill flew over, calling. A few minutes later, I heard a small flock up ahead. They sounded like they were either feeding, or just taking off from feeding – or maybe even flying in a tight loop just overhead. Regardless, I never did happen upon them again.

However, this was a very good sign – along with our Crossbills in Camden Hills on Tuesday, and reports from Northern Maine of a lot of finches – maybe we will have a decent finch winter afterall. So, speaking of finches this winter, I will now go out on a limb and try to make some predictions about what our winter birding – finches and others – will hold in store for us.

Most of our winter finches are irruptive (in some years they go farther in larger numbers than most years), and irruptions are caused by food. In years with a lot of food in the species’ normal home range, they don’t irrupt. If there’s little food, they may irrupt to look for food elsewhere. Sometimes these irruptions are predictable. If there’s a lot of a certain food resource to our north, the species that depend on them are not likely to head very far. Spruce, fir, birches, and alders are all important food sources that have cyclical production – some years they produce a lot, in other years they don’t. In other words, these northern denizens are simply nomadic – they travel to where the food is.

Early predictions and evidence made it sound like we would not be seeing many finches this winter. Few Purple Finches, Pine Siskins, and Red-breasted Nuthatches were moving through migration bottlenecks this fall – often the first sign of a shortage of food in the north. Furthermore, there haven’t been many of these birds around so far this fall. They’re here – they’re all resident throughout the state – but not in numbers expected if there was an incursion from the north. With a great crop of Yellow Birch and Speckled Alder to our north, I don’t expect too many Purple Finches and Pine Siskins will arrive, but those that are already here will likely stick around.

Common Redpolls are well known to be on a biennial cycle, one year they’re all over, the next year they’re nowhere to be found. This should be an “on” year for Redpolls, but last year – an “off” year – was actually quite good for this species. So, who knows what this year will bring? Is the on/off switch resetting, or will we get three good years in a row? Or, as some fear – and much evidence suugests - is climate change effecting northern cycles?

American Goldfinches are here in good numbers, and with a great crop of favorite foods – Yellow and White Birch, Speckled Alder, and “weed” seeds, I would expect we’ll see good numbers throughout the winter, with nyjer and other feeders becoming more important, and more often visited, as the winter progresses and seed resources are depleted.

Early predictions suggested a dearth of Red Crossbills and White-winged Crossbills due to excellent food resources to our north (cones of various flavors). However, as previously mentioned, recent reports of White-winged Crossbills suggest maybe it will be a good winter for this species afterall. It’s possible that they will “invade” Maine to take advantage of our tremendous spruce cone crop. Let’s hope so!

Evening Grosbeaks continue to be an enigma, as they continue to decline – or so it would seem – in the East. They’re just not around in the numbers they used to be, and they certainly haven’t irrupted in any large numbers in a while. The continued decline of Spruce Budworm, and possibly clearcutting and pesticide application as well, continue to take their toll.

So, with a lot of seed to our north, I’m predicting it won’t be a great finch winter, but it won’t be that bad either. Goldfinches will be around, and some Purple Finches and Siskins as well. Meanwhile, White-winged Crossbills will certainly make for some excitement if they continue to arrive.

Part II tomorrow . . .