And speaking of winter . . . that was a pleasant (for me anyway!( suprise this morning to wake up to a few inches of snow! The forcasts had only called for a few scattered snow showers, so this one cam out of no where, dropping up to 7" on the area. It was a perfect morning for feeder watching - especially with a hot cup of tea or coffee (shade-grown of course!) - which is exactly how I spent MY morning.

Yesterday, I began to babble about my winter birding predictions. Here's Part II of that dribble:

As for the frugivores, Pine Grosbeak and Bohemian Waxwing in a particular, I’m guessing we won’t see many of these this winter. Fruit crops – especially Mountain Ash and Winterberry – to our north and west are tremendous, and it will take a while for these guys to eat their way into Maine. However, if they do arrive here – likely late in the winter – we should still have food around for them, but American Robins and Cedar Waxwings – both of which should stick around, and more will likely arrive from farther north as the season progresses – will likely consume much of it.

As for predators, Rough-legged Hawk are nowhere to be found, but a few early Snowy Owls signal that there may be a lack of rodents on the tundra. Maybe this year will produce widespread Snowy Owl sightings. That would certainly be welcome! But, what about the other northern owls? We can only hope!

I’m not sure how Snowshoe Hare especially, but also Ruffed Grouse populations are doing to our north, but if they are in a low point of their cycle, we will get a Northern Goshawk irruption. Average numbers were reported from eastern U.S. hawkwatches this fall, so it does not appear that we will have a Goshawk irruption this year

A rash of early Northern Shrike sightings throughout Maine, and all the way down to New Jersey suggests that we should see good numbers of these this winter. However, if we have really heavy snowfall, more may continue on further south.

In some winters, we see small “irruptions” of alcids, such as Razorbills and Thick-billed Murres into nearshore waters. This is usually caused by following schools of baitfish in shore, or by a lack of fish offshore. Water temperature, climate change, fishing pressure, natural cycles, and more have an affect on this, and I certainly do not have expertise here to make a call (Mike and Rich, are you reading this?)

As for some of the resident birds, with the very poor acorn crop, I expect Blue Jays and Wild Turkeys will be hungry this winter. Blue Jays are hammering feeders now caching as much as they can. Normally, they’d be busy hoarding acorns. But, with so few acorns around, they are filling their larder even more with seeds and peanuts from feeding stations. Wild Turkeys, too, will likely spend more time in yards and under feeders this winter as well, especially if we get a good amount of snow.

As for the so-called “half-hardies,” those species that can tolerate overwintering farther north if food is available and the weather is temperate. Gray Catbird, Carolina Wrens, Yellow-breasted Chats, and Yellow-rumped Warblers are examples here in Maine. If they have the food, and the weather is warmer than normal, more will linger, and more will make it through the winter. With the great migration conditions in October, and the cold start to the fall, few “half-hardies” have stuck around. Plus, without a big incursion of “reverse migrants” – often on strong southerly winds before strong storms in the fall – this year, there are less to stick around. However, those that do will likely have the food – good fruit crops here in Southern Maine – resources to hang on, pending the weather. Christmas Bird Counts will likely turn up lingering half-hardies, as they always do, and we’ll see what happens after that.

And although weather is not the “ultimate” cause of migration – the pursuit of food resources is – it does certainly affect migration and overwintering survival. I’ve seen multiple predictions on this winter – a couple call for cold winters with above-normal snow. Others, using the El Nino influence as being more pronounced, call for a warmer than normal, and rainy winter. We’ll see, but I’m certainly hoping for the cold and snowy option!