A truly rare event occurred on Friday morning - I DIDN'T go birding! After a nice, relaxing big breakfast and mug of tea, I decided to head to work early to make some progress on some projects. With my third winter hous project finally completed, it's time to get some writing projects off the slate. One, it opens my schedule up for a potential very big project that I am considering, and also it opens up the schedule for more time in the field with the impending spring migration! Red-winged Blackbirds are likely only a week or two away, so its time to get some work done!

In early December (December 7th and 8th to be exact), I made some predictions about what this winter will bring for a selection of bird species. Let's see how I did!

Purple Finches and Pine Siskins.
Prediction:
“With a great crop of Yellow Birch and Speckled Alder to our north, I don’t expect too many Purple Finches and Pine Siskins will arrive, but those that are already here will likely stick around.”
Observations:
I was half right! Virtually NO Purple Finches are Pine Siskins arrived, but even fewer stuck around. It was a suprisingly “PUFI” and “PISI” free winter.

Common Redpoll.
Prediction:
“This should be an “on” year for Redpolls, but last year – an “off” year – was actually quite good for this species. So, who knows what this year will bring? Is the on/off switch resetting, or will we get three good years in a row?”
Observations:
It was most definitely an “off” year.

American Goldfinch.
Prediction:
“I would expect we’ll see good numbers throughout the winter, with nyjer and other feeders becoming more important, and more often visited, as the winter progresses and seed resources are depleted.”
Observations:
Whoo-whoo! Got that one right. Lots of goldfinches are around, but only in the past month have they returned in force to many feeders.

Red and White-winged Crossbills.
Prediction:
“Early predictions suggested a dearth of Red Crossbills and White-winged Crossbills due to excellent food resources to our north (cones of various flavors). However, as previously mentioned, recent reports of White-winged Crossbills suggest maybe it will be a good winter for this species afterall. It’s possible that they will “invade” Maine to take advantage of our tremendous spruce cone crop.”
Observations:
Few Reds, but boy, have the White-wings moved in! They certainly arrived, and have continued to increase in numbers throughout the state, but especially in the Western and Northern areas. Many are singing now, which means they may be sticking around to breed since there is so much food to be found.

Evening Grosbeak.
Prediction:
Evening Grosbeaks continue to be an enigma, as they continue to decline – or so it would seem – in the East. They’re just not around in the numbers they used to be, and they certainly haven’t irrupted in any large numbers in a while. The continued decline of Spruce Budworm, and possibly clearcutting and pesticide application as well, continue to take their toll.
Observations:
Once again, few and far between.

Pine Grosbeak and Bohemian Waxwing.
Prediction:
“As for the frugivores, Pine Grosbeak and Bohemian Waxwing in a particular, I’m guessing we won’t see many of these this winter”
Observations:
I haven’t received any Pine Grosbeak reports, and very, very few Bohemian Waxwings have been around. Another gold star for me!

American Robin and Cedar Waxwing.
Prediction:
“However, if they do arrive here – likely late in the winter – we should still have food around for them, but American Robins and Cedar Waxwings – both of which should stick around, and more will likely arrive from farther north as the season progresses – will likely consume much of it.”
Observations:
Yup! Hit that one on the head, too.

Snowy Owl and Rough-legged Hawk.
Prediction:
“Rough-legged Hawk are nowhere to be found, but a few early Snowy Owls signal that there may be a lack of rodents on the tundra.”
Observations:
I was on a roll there with correct predictions, but not this one! In fact, it turned out to be nearly opposite. Very, very few Snowy Owls were reported in the state, while Rough-legged Hawks began to show up in early February and have been seen with unusual frequency. I wonder if they were on the move this fall, but then stalled as the lack of snowcover (until the second half of winter) didn’t encourage them to continue this far until recently?

Northern Goshawk.
Prediction:
“Average numbers were reported from eastern U.S. hawkwatches this fall, so it does not appear that we will have a Goshawk irruption this year.”
Observations:
Fairly few and far between, few reports outside of areas with resident birds - got this one right!

Northern Shrike.
Prediction:
“A rash of early Northern Shrike sightings throughout Maine, and all the way down to New Jersey suggests that we should see good numbers of these this winter. However, if we have really heavy snowfall, more may continue on further south”
Observations:
Wrong again! The early influx just seem to “dry” up. Although a scattered few were seen, overall it was probably less than average, at least in Southern Maine.

Alcids.
Prediction:
“In some winters, we see small “irruptions” of alcids, such as Razorbills and Thick-billed Murres into nearshore waters. This is usually caused by following schools of baitfish in shore, or by a lack of fish offshore. Water temperature, climate change, fishing pressure, natural cycles, and more have an affect on this, and I certainly do not have expertise here to make a call.”
Observations:
Well, since I didn’t actually make a prediction here, I couldn’t be wrong! However, something clearly occurred, producing large numbers of Razorbills and especially amazing numbers of Dovekies close to shore earlier in the winter.

Blue Jays and Wild Turkeys.
Prediction:
“As for some of the resident birds, with the very poor acorn crop, I expect Blue Jays and Wild Turkeys will be hungry this winter”
Observations:
Many folks at the store, and my yard in Pownal, seem to confirm this prediction. Wild Turkeys have spent quite a bit of time at many feeders, and Blue Jays continue to be quite busy at feeders (i.e. the 19-25 jays that we have in our Pownal yard each morning!)